It's back, though.
Ohio got fresh evidence yesterday that the economy is replaying the worst days of that decade, as the state unemployment rate hit double digits for the first time in 25 years.
The seasonally adjusted rate was 10.2 percent in April, up from 9.7 percent in March and up from 6.2 percent a year earlier, according to figures from the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.
"The economy is still deteriorating," although not as dramatically as it was at the beginning of the year, said Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics in the Cleveland area. "We are approaching the bottom, though we're not quite there yet."
Gov. Ted Strickland said there are "embryonic signs" that the economy is beginning to recover. "However, even if that is the case, it is likely that there will continue to be a period of continued job loss," he said.
If the early 1980s are any guide, the losses might continue for a while. Ohio's unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent in July 1981 and stayed in double digits until January 1984. The peak was in January 1983: 13.8 percent.
Skully Webb also has thoughts on the economy and about the 1980s. He owns Skully's Diner, a dance club in the Short North known for its "Ladies '80s" Thursday nights.
His customers, mainly in their 20s, don't seem to be feeling the effects of the downturn, he said, but he can see evidence of distress in his job applicants.
"We're getting three to four applications per day," he said. "We're getting people who are overqualified for every position, people who lost their jobs."
He's not surprised that young people don't seem to be as worried as their parents. The same was true in the early 1980s when he was a student at Ohio State University, he said.
Economists say this downturn has no obvious precedent.
"Every recession is unique," said Bill LaFayette, vice president for economic analysis at the Columbus Chamber.
The closest parallel might be the recession of 1973-75, although the recovery from that downturn was rapid, something that isn't expected this time, he said.
The recovery that's expected will be more gradual because people can't easily get financing for houses and businesses, LaFayette said. "It's a difference between this recession and most recessions, that credit is so tight," he said.
The high unemployment rates of the early 1980s were worse than today's because jobless numbers were high even before the economy slipped into recession, said Mark Schweitzer, director of research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Things were different in 2007, before the current downturn, when Ohio's jobless rate was much lower, or else the current rate "would be well up into the teens," he said.
Schweitzer thinks the slowdown is easing, but he is reluctant to speculate on when growth will return.
"The underlying indicators that we all look at -- housing starts, inventories, capital investments -- are leveling off," he said.
Last month, Ohio's biggest job losses were in manufacturing and construction; those sectors lost 11,500 and 6,700 jobs respectively.
The biggest gain was in government, which grew by 2,500 jobs, largely because of hiring for the 2010 census, the state said.
The national unemployment rate was 8.9 percent in April, up from 8.5 percent the month before and 5 percent a year earlier.
Ohio was one of eight states with a double-digit unemployment rate last month. The others were Michigan, 12.9 percent; Oregon, 12 percent; South Carolina, 11.5 percent; Rhode Island, 11.1 percent; California, 11 percent; North Carolina, 10.8 percent; and Nevada, 10.6 percent.
Rhode Island's and South Carolina's rates were their highest in decades of record-keeping; Ohio's rate is still not close to its highest on record.
North Dakota's jobless rate of 4 percent was the lowest in the country. Others below 5 percent were Nebraska, 4.4 percent, and South Dakota, 4.8 percent.
In all, 44 states and the District of Columbia had decreases in nonfarm employment last month, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"I think the change that has occurred in this economy is profound, unprecedented," Strickland said, "and I think it is likely that we are going to have an extended period of time with a struggling economy."
The governor added: "That does not mean -- and I've said this over and over and over -- that we can just, in a passive way, accept the circumstances that exist without, in a very targeted, proactive way, working to make the kind of investments needed for long-term prosperity."
At Skully's Diner, Webb conceded that the early 1980s might have had a rotten economy, but he said the era had "great music for partyin'."
"People say they don't want to relive the '80s," he said. "Well, the '80s were a blast."
Dispatch reporter Mark Niquette contributed to this story.
No comments:
Post a Comment